::
I followed Flyvbjerg’s work for a while but I’ve gone off it
He describes real phenomena that are compelling and make good headlines, or the academic equivalent
I came to see his advice as being “We know all mega projects over run by X% so add X% to your estimate before you start”
This does nothing to draw attention to the areas where effort might limit the propensity to exceed the budget – a counsel of despair “We are doomed so we might as well get used to it”
It’s an attitude that I feel will undermine commitment to maintain to good performance – not completely but softening it by suggesting that some loss of control is inevitable. That might be true but it’s hardly going to stiffen the backbone of a project team
Hollmann has written critiques of Flyvbjerg, one of which I saved in the paper attached. I don’t have the paper by Drs. Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui to which Hollmann refers but I will attach a later paper by Love et al in a later post as there is a two attachment limit on these messages. Love et al discuss the point at which “The Estimate” is declared and conclude that a valid comparison between actual and estimated costs is best made based on the cost agreed when a contract is signed.
The second attachment here is another paper by Flyvbjerg that might be of interest
Attachments:
You must be
logged in to view attached files.
