Working Group B: What principles are important in dealing with complexity?

[Julia Cianci]

#15049

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@davin-shellshear, thanks for the recommendations for background reading. While I look into purchasing one of those reference texts, could you maybe suggest a journal article that might be some useful preliminary reading?

Many thanks,

Julia

[Davin Shellshear]

#15043

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Hi Group B

At the outset, I would like to thank Ian for his dissertation on our work to date, and the paper he has shared with us. Can I strongly recommend that Group B participants go through his paper (ICCPM-2022-5-SIG-WG-B-PROPOSED-PRINCIPLES-OF-COMPLEX-PROJECT-MANAGEMENT-V2-1) so we can use this as a launch point for the next Group B meeting. I think it can help us move forward and avoid wheel spinning.

With reference to some of Ian’s comments (e.g. Perhaps an ICCPM Thought Leadership focus on behavioural psychology would be beneficial – a study to understand and methods to address emotionally unsupportive stakeholder responses so as to minimize harm, as well as the behavioural characteristics of governance leaders to be successful in complex projects) and Julia’s subsequent post, I would like to again recommend (at the risk of becoming boring) that members consider Complex Responsive Processes (CRP) as an entry to understanding why human behaviour is such a key element of complexity and a rich source of emergence in projects. [Mowles, C. (2022) Complexity: a key idea for business and society, London: Routledge] provides a brilliant discussion of the topic, and earlier works such as [Stacey, R.D. and Mowles, C. (2016) <i>Strategic Management and Organisational Dynamics: the Challenge of Complexity to Ways of Thinking about Organizations, </i>London: Pearson Education, 7th Edition] are also highly recommended as more foundational text.

I have agreed with Colin Smith that we will present an ICCPM webinar on CRP some point in the future.

Looking forward to our next meeting

Cheers

Davin

[Julia Cianci]

#15042

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Thanks for sharing your draft proposal – so much to mull over.

I’m particularly interested in the culture of organisations, and that way that the people ‘in the middle’ can influence change / influence up, to provide the conditions needed to support complex project management and to optimise knowledge transfer. You mention consideration of the language that can resonate with organisational governance, and I think that would be extremely useful to have in a PM’s tool kit.

 

[ian mack]

#15038

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I seem yo have sent the wrong file, no idea why, apologies. A second try.   Ian

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[ian mack]

#15036

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Hi WG B team. Having recovered from a prolonged power outage and achieved a restored Internet service after a wicked storm in Southern Ontario and Quebec of last Saturday evening, I am able to post again.

I advanced the work I had spoken of last meeting. I have wrapped up a draft paper and my thoughts on ‘principles’ (or considerations) that arose from data mining and some biased ‘sense making” from our first two discussions for navigating complex projects. The approach and ‘target to shoot at’ is attached. I am not wedded to the approach, though it will be my personal and evolving capture as we delve deeper into the subject and add additional items to the text.

As such, I do NOT recommend that visitors outside of our Working Group take any credence in the attached file – it is clearly a pedestrian work in progress.

Since at least one person asked me to post using PDF format, I have done so and hope it works for this medieval computer Neanderthal.

Hoping to connect next week – Ian

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[ian mack]

#15020

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Thanks Devin for the note. I am busy data mining the latest meeting, to add to my collection from the first meeting – and reading additional papers raised. I will then work to further develop proposed principles (guidelines or whatever) and will send the latest draft ‘in-development’ paper (as far as I get as time permits) before the next meeting. Hopefully then we can decide whether we focus on those to develop our approach to achieve an outcome.   Ian

[Davin Shellshear]

#14979

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Hi Group B

Attached is my transcript of our meeting on 12th May. Tony, I couldn’t properly hear the word you used for an index to measure complexity from the Major Project Leadership Academy. Usually when I Google it, if I am close, I get the word. Failed this time, so please excuse Meiotic. Could you post the right work.

Ian, you mentioned that you posted two documents from your deep dive on the previous meeting. Were they concatenated in the one document? or am I missing something?

Enjoy reading, deep diving into, or contemplating our collective thoughts from the last meeting. I would really welcome comments, thoughts, references, deep dives, and your sheer brilliance posted on the forum.

Cheers

Davin Shellshear

Update: Tony provided the correct name maieutic – so the notes have been updated accordingly. He even provided a reference paper which I will attach as well.

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[Davin Shellshear]

#14954

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Thank you Stephen – a very interesting paper. Sonja Blignaut has also produced other interesting papers, such as http://www.morebeyond.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Culture-White-Paper-April-2016.pdf which talks about culture from a complexity and CAS perspective. In a similar theme, Chris Mowles et all have produced a paper titled Transformational Change in the Higher Education Sector: an inquiry into leadership practice 

which looks at qualities and capabilities of senior managers which might be underrepresented in most accounts of transformational change in organisations. These are:

1 The ability to live with contradictions, ambivalence and doubt, and the ability to cope longer with uncertainty.
2 The development of practical judgment about when to intervene and when not to, when to express doubt, how to ‘read’ a group, and how to get alongside people.
3 The ability of leaders/managers to take themselves seriously as managers and seek different ways of developing their capacities technically, as well as developing greater reflective abilities and critical self-awareness.
4. Leading involves developing enhanced political judgement about how to work productively with power, when to encourage, when to direct, and gaining deeper insights into interdependencies.
5. Developing better political judgement implies an ability to work more skilfully in groups and to accept that conflicting over who ‘we’ think we are and what ‘we’ think we are doing together is immanent in all groups trying to achieve things together.
6. A greater capacity to work in groups implies an enhanced ability to endure the negative emotions that inevitably result from profound processes of change, such as feelings of loss and lack of recognition, and the feelings of vulnerability which may arise when confronted with colleagues’ strong emotions.
7. Senior managers are story-tellers in chief, sense makers-in-chief, recognisers-in-chief. They may be in charge, but they are not always in control.
The report calls for more research into everyday examples of conceiving, developing and implementing change projects from the ground up as an antidote to more inflated and idealized accounts which are usually more readily available.

Happy reading

Cheers

Davin Shellshear

[Stephen Grey]

#14953

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I’ve been having trouble keeping up with the homework and will have to read Ian’s paper properly later

In the meantime, this popped into my LinkedIn feed. I know the author is worth watching and on a quick scan it looked useful so I’m passing it on.

https://complexityfit.com/2022/05/04/habits-of-mind-that-help-build-complexity-fitness/

See you in the morning

[ian mack]

#14947

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Team – As a follow-on to my dataa mining paper on the last meeting’s discussion, I have enclosed a sample of the approach I suggested with a preamble and some samples of what could be principles. I have not tried to determine what we might use as a methodology for what we might consider as ‘important’. For your consideration at the next meeting as we set forth towards our goal, at which I hope to make it and see you all.   Ian

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[ian mack]

#14939

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Ian wrote:

 

Lots of articles mentioned in recent posts, many thanks. And what a great opportunity to live and learn for this old guy! Thanks for the reference papers on this apparent and significant debate about planning through the lens of cost (and schedule) estimation approaches. What I find interesting is the implication that this is an either/or debate that should instead be addressed using polarity management – that is to say <u>ALL</u> of these approaches merit consideration when planning complex projects. And while the rolling wave planning model has its drawbacks (e.g. the unacceptability of the perception of ‘blank cheques’ and the sunk-cost concern/bias downstream to name but two), I think it offers significant advantages to maintaining credibility, if (a big IF) you can convince organizational governance to adopt it.

[Stephen Grey]

#14937

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This fits with some of Snowden’s writing about the need to resurrect the idea of craft and apprenticeship and apply them to knowledge work, not only the trades and manual skills in which the concept was founded

[Stephen Grey]

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I couldn’t find the paper by Love et al mentioned in an earlier message but I think I was getting confused with this one of his

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[Stephen Grey]

#14932

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I followed Flyvbjerg’s work for a while but I’ve gone off it

He describes real phenomena that are compelling and make good headlines, or the academic equivalent

I came to see his advice as being “We know all mega projects over run by X% so add X% to your estimate before you start”

This does nothing to draw attention to the areas where effort might limit the propensity to exceed the budget – a counsel of despair “We are doomed so we might as well get used to it”

It’s an attitude that I feel will undermine commitment to maintain to good performance – not completely but softening it by suggesting that some loss of control is inevitable. That might be true but it’s hardly going to stiffen the backbone of a project team

Hollmann has written critiques of Flyvbjerg, one of which I saved in the paper attached. I don’t have the paper by Drs. Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui to which Hollmann refers but I will attach a later paper by Love et al in a later post as there is a two attachment limit on these messages. Love et al discuss the point at which “The Estimate” is declared and conclude that a valid comparison between actual and estimated costs is best made based on the cost agreed when a contract is signed.

The second attachment here is another paper by Flyvbjerg that might be of interest

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[Stephen Grey]

#14931

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Attention to keeping options open is not always seen as a useful strategy but rather as a sign of indecision and not having a clear way forward

If I get the chance, I like to see it given weight in any decision

Not so much maintaining multiple options in play, although there are times when that is useful, but avoiding closing off options if we don’t need to

What that entails is context dependent

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