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Working Group B: What principles are important in dealing with complexity?

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  • Andrew Pyke
    Participant
      @mr-andrew-pyke
      Post count: 44
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      The Zoom isn’t letting me in, today.  Is it everyone?

      Davin Shellshear
      SIG Chair
        @davin-shellshear
        Post count: 170
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        Thanks Rob

        An interesting extract from the Wikipedia article is

        Complex systems may exhibit critical transitions

        See attached for those who have a mathematical bent

        Cheers

        Davin

         

         

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        Rob McMartin
        SIG Chair
          @rmcmartin
          Post count: 44
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          Morning everyone,

          I was doing some research on Project Complexity for an upcoming presentation and found this on Wikipedia.  Some interesting information.

          Complex system – Wikipedia

          ian mack
          Participant
            @ian-mack
            Post count: 121
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            Team – I have once again updated the initial version of our tranisitons paper based on the discussion at the last meeting. That included the introduction of an Annex B which tries to spek to the common triggers and transitions we have identified to date. Note in that Annex that I have not finished my work, as I wanted to get the next draft of the paper out for you all to review (if time allowed) before our meeting next week.

             

            As promised, I have red highlighted the changes made in the paper.

             

            I hope to see you all soon. Ian

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            Davin Shellshear
            SIG Chair
              @davin-shellshear
              Post count: 170
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              Hi Rob, I use Dragon Dictate to talk into the computer. I listen to what is said and then talk it into a docx document. Edit as I go because talk never translates directly into the written word, and then normally do a final edit to clean up the glaring English glitches. Takes about 8 hours to do each meeting.

              Cheers

              Davin

              Rob McMartin
              SIG Chair
                @rmcmartin
                Post count: 44
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                Davin,

                 

                you must use some transcribing software, or you are a faster typist than me.  I am only up to the 35 minute mark.

                 

                Rob

                ian mack
                Participant
                  @ian-mack
                  Post count: 121
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                  Great to see you back Davin, and thank you.  Ian

                  Davin Shellshear
                  SIG Chair
                    @davin-shellshear
                    Post count: 170
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                    Hi Team

                    Davin back – hopefully for some time.

                    I recognise that transcribing the minutes is an incredibly boring and lengthy piece of work, so I have jumped in and transcribed the last meeting. See attached.

                    I haven’t tried to edit it, so if it sounds a bit funny, so be it.

                    See you at the next meeting.

                    Cheers

                    Davin

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                    Andrew Pyke
                    Participant
                      @mr-andrew-pyke
                      Post count: 44
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                      Team,
                      I will unfortunately be unable to join tomorrow session due to work duties.  But I have read through the paper and I, too, am starting to become excited that we are on to something useful.  Like polarities, once you start thinking about “transitions”, the examples are everywhere.

                      Apropos, over the last week, I did an independent review of a large program, one tranche of which was Waterfall and another that was Agile.  Goodness me!  The Waterfall tranche had lost all baseline control and the original specification was completely overtaken by emergence.  This was to a point, that a serious option was to abandon Waterfall and commit to Agile for the balance of the tranche.  By that, I mean abandon the specification-driven approach and switch to a prioritised pursuit of value, for the remainder of the budget.  (A big topic).  I just offer it as yet another type of transition – when one methodology has to switch to another.

                      I look forward to the comments from the meeting tomorrow.  Apologies that I can’t make it.

                      Andrew

                      Stephen Grey
                      Participant
                        @stephen-grey
                        Post count: 104
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                        ICCPM-2023-2-Transition-Exploration-Paper-V1 is looking good. I think it will open a few eyes.

                        One point I want to add to the discussion is that, to my eyes, I think the last three examples of common transitions on page 4 are the closest to where I started thinking about transitions, i.e.:

                        • changes to knowledge levels, level of complexity, vision for the project, strengths or weaknesses within the broad project enterprise, cultural behaviours, relationships or the capability to adapt,
                        • a degree of unexplained chaos somewhere in the project enterprise, and
                        • emerging practices that are going awry or are not receiving continuous support from people across the project’s enterprise

                        The three examples above seem to me to involve changes in the internal dynamics of the project. A lot of the others represent changes in outcomes or overt characteristics.

                        This is not to diminish the importance of the other types of transitions and the need to encourage people to think about them all.

                        I can’t prove it, but I feel that projects that start out well ordered  and able to respond to perturbations in a controlled manner, can shift (transition) to a state where they are more febrile. In this state, changes in one area that are made deliberately, or result from unforeseen internal developments, or are imposed by external actors and influences, can stimulate disturbances elsewhere in the project more distantly, more swiftly and more violently than they would have before this transition.

                        This is not a transition in the observable state of the project so much as a transition of its stability. The tempo of internal interactions increases as does the magnitude of the disturbances they create. Something analogous to an elderly person suffering minor strokes and low level heart attacks who becomes more vulnerable and needs more urgent, immediate, medical attention as the attrition of each incident takes its toll on the ability of their physiology to correct itself (not a perfect analogy but the human body can be a useful model). Externally they might look much the same as they did five years ago to an independent observer, but they have gone, progressively, from being in a relatively stable condition to living on a knife edge (more or less what happened to my father in the last decade of his life).

                        I am sorry I have not been more engaged lately and I hope this does not seem disruptive. The point I am making takes nothing away from the thrust of the paper. Perhaps it draws attention to an intangible feature of large complex projects and I am not clear yet how one examines or influences that.

                        Davin Shellshear
                        SIG Chair
                          @davin-shellshear
                          Post count: 170
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                          Hi Group B

                          I would like to suggest that all Group B members take a few minutes to read ‘ICCPM-2023-2-Transition-Exploration-Paper-V1’ before our meeting on Thursday. It would help up to progress this topic quickly to a great outcome – I am impressed with the document already.

                          Any suggestion before Thursday would be very welcome – post it on the Group B forum

                          Cheers

                          Davin

                          In case you missed it. the advertisement for Thursday’s meeting is:
                          Managing Risk in Complexity
                          Special Interest Group (MRC SIG)
                          + Meeting Reminder
                          An email from MRC SIG Co-Chairs Davin Shellshear and Rob McMartin. This email contains the meeting schedule with links to join the meeting.

                          Dear Davin,

                          MRC SIG will meet this Thursday (2nd March at 8:00am-9:00am AEDT). See the meeting links in the next section.

                          Please note that the meetings are held during Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) and ensure that your reminders have been set accordingly.

                          Welcome to all existing and potential members of the MRC SIG, Group B.
                          Group B has been studying the issue of risk in complex projects, and has covered a wide range of matters related to the topic.

                               The recent focus has been on transitions in complex projects, particularly those that are unplanned and unwanted. Of related interest is being able to identify and respond to the weak signals that indicate such a transition may be emerging. The topic is very broad and relevant to all projects, but of particular interest to complex projects. The group is addressing a wide range of issues including appropriate governance, collaboration as a key strategy in managing complexity in projects, behaviours including power dynamics, hubris, group think, wilful blindness, etc., scarcity of experienced project managers, managing upwards and working with stakeholders, staying sane, and more!

                                Join us on Thursday March 2nd 2023 at 0800 AEDT and join in this engaging and important conversation. The power of our group comes from diversity and inclusion, so we welcome all to participate.
                          You are very welcome!

                          See you there!
                          Davin

                          Reminder: Meetings notes for each Working Group can be found in their appropriate topic thread in the <u>MRC SIG Forum page</u>.</td>
                          SIG WEBPAGE

                          Meeting Schedule and Links – 2023

                          Topic: MRC SIG – Group B – 2023
                          Time: Mar 2, 2023 08:00 AM Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney
                          Every 3 weeks on Thu, until May 25, 2023, 5 occurrence(s)

                          (recurring every 3 weeks)
                          Calendar Reminder:<u> </u><u>click here to download</u>
                          Proposed Topic: What principles are important in dealing with complexity?

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                          ian mack
                          Participant
                            @ian-mack
                            Post count: 121
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                            Thanks Simon. It was a great podcast and accompanying note with many insights, and I have included the echo chamber effect in draft of the new paper!

                            Team – As agreed at the last meeting, it seems I am the scribe again and we are generating a paper on our new subject around ‘transitions’. I have again mined the transcript of the last meeting for the gems. Then I took and modified the first draft that Davin conveniently formatted (much appreciated).

                            I would ask you all to read the whole paper please? You will note things we did not discuss yet, such as the fact that transitions can always be a potential risk, even if they have the overall potential/trend to be positive but may not be managed well.

                            I promise that following versions based on our future meeting discussions will highlight amendments in red. And as always, comments are welcome before or during the next meeting in about a week.    Ian

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                            Simon Springate
                            Participant
                              @springates
                              Post count: 25
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                              I just received the latest newsletter from the Major Projects Association

                              Big focus on the Major project Echo chamber, you only hear what you want to hear and surround yourself with those who think the same – it’s not worth the risk to do something new

                              1 min Podcast is here – I, am no fan of Podcasts, but this is good!

                              And highlights report here:  https://majorprojects.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/HighlightsAnnConf2022.pdf

                              <span class=”ui-provider ty b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z ab ac ae af ag ah ai aj ak” dir=”ltr”>Sound bite:  <i>It’s not thinking outside the box, it’s listening outside your bubble</i></span>

                              Davin Shellshear
                              SIG Chair
                                @davin-shellshear
                                Post count: 170
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                                Hi Group B

                                I have spoken to Colin Smith about getting new (skilled/ experienced) people the Group B members know, and wish to invite to attend our next Group B meeting. Colin is very happy with the idea – free and open attendance to an initial meeting (whether it be the next one on 2nd March, or a subsequent one) and then they will have to become ICCPM members if they wish to continue to come to the SIG meetings.

                                Can you please let me know name and email addresses of anyone you you would like to invite (an presumably is interested to attend) and I will get ICCPM to do the IT magic so they can log in. Just post the names on this forum, or email me directly on dkea1598@bigpond.net.au

                                Cheers

                                Davin Shellshear

                                Colin has provided us with the mechanism he needs, see below:

                                Hi Davin,

                                 

                                I’ve just had a conversation with the team in the office and it seems the easiest way to go about your idea to invite guests to the SIG would be as follows:

                                 

                                What we need from you:

                                 

                                • the date of the “special guest” meeting.
                                • A list of all the email addresses for invited guests.

                                 

                                What we will do:

                                 

                                • We will send out and email that is individualised based on which existing SIG member has provided the contact.  For example, if it is one of your contacts then the email will commence with something like “Dear John,  Davin Shellshear has invited you on behalf of ICCPM to join the MRC SIG meeting as a guest on the…[date, time etc]…….. plus some info about the SIG etc.
                                • The email will have a one-time link to join the meeting on the identified date.  We will do this separately to the regular repeatable SIG meeting reminder email that Eliza has recently set up for existing SIG members.
                                • After the “guest” session we will send a follow up email to the invited guests with a discount promo offer to become an ICCPM member explaining that ongoing participation in the SIG requires ICCPM membership.
                                • If Guests then become members they will be added to the regular ongoing SIG meeting invitations.

                                 

                                Hope this makes sense and thank you and the rest of the existing members for this initiative!

                                 

                                I have copied Eliza and Sebastian.  Eliza has been babysitting the marcomms activities since Stephen left but Sebastian is now the permanent replacement.  Sebastian is still learning the ropes so in the mean time Eliza will still be involved.

                                 

                                Regards

                                 

                                Collin Smith

                                Managing Director and CEO

                                Davin Shellshear
                                SIG Chair
                                  @davin-shellshear
                                  Post count: 170
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                                  Hi Group B

                                  Attaches are the transcription notes from our last meeting on 9th February.

                                  Please read and enjoy – as usual a lot of interesting content.

                                  Remember that we are now back on our 3 week cycle, so our next meeting is on 2nd March 2023

                                  Cheers

                                  Davin

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