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Working Group B: What principles are important in dealing with complexity?

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  • Davin Shellshear
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      @davin-shellshear
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      Hi Group B

      We have been sharing stories of past events over the last few meetings and not really focusing on a single topic. I suspect that will run dry quickly.
      I wondered if the group is interested in the SOSM model of Michael Jackson:

      I find the drift from a Complex Pluralistic environment to Complex Coercive to be of particular interest. I have seen it happen and I suspect many of you have seen this as well. I suspect it most likely describes the changing relationship between the project owner and the contractor. Are you interested in considering this subject from the perspectives of:

      * Evidence of this drift occurring in complex projects (or even large projects) – have you seen this happen, how did you know it was happening?

      * Why this drift occurs

      * Early warning signs of this transition

      * What can be done to mitigate against this drift

      * The risk consequences of drifting into coercive control

      *Other

      Any interest?

      Cheers

      Davin

      Davin Shellshear
      SIG Chair
        @davin-shellshear
        Post count: 168
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        Hi Group B

        I thought you may find the post below interesting. It comes from John Cutler from The Beautiful Mess <cutlefish@substack.com> and this post in particular links to:

        https://cutlefish.substack.com/p/tbm-322-work-shape-mix?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=24711&post_id=151902257&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2ddplo&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

        In this post, we’re going to discuss work “shape” mix and why it matters. As with most things, this is an oversimplification, but let’s imagine three broad buckets of work:

        Extensive dependencies across multiple teams and departments. High coordination costs. Require project and program management. A significant investment in time, energy, risk, and capacity. Project-based funding focused on project phases. ROI is considered on a project basis, with investment framed in time and materials. Risks include premature convergence, building bridges to nowhere, missing market window due to delays,

        Teams are more autonomous. Iterative/incremental development focused on more stable outcomes and problems. Aligned with company strategy and high-level objectives. Teams operate as internal companies, not startups, as in zero-to-one efforts (see below). Accounted for through models like independent budgets, cost centers, internal P&L, capitalization, etc. Key risks are getting stuck at a local maximum, accumulating too much debt and stalling, or failing to shift as the market and/or strategy shifts.

        Building something new—resembles an internal startup. A mix of close executive attention (due to strategic importance) but operate best in a somewhat siloed environment. Milestone-based funding is similar to how VCs invest in a startup—smaller initial allocations, with additional rounds contingent upon reaching strategic milestones demonstrating viability. Key risks include either pivoting too early or not pivoting at all and squashing creativity because of the politics involved in high-profile innovation.

        This model in no way captures the complexity of product work at scale—whenever I’ve done work shape activities with teams, we end up with 15+ shapes—but let’s run with three for now.

        As a startup grows and scale into the company, and as the company grows and scales into a bigger company, you tend to see a shift:

        We start with 0-1 work across the whole (very small) company. Then, very early on, you start mixing in org-wide projects (e.g., Launch the Thing). Over time, you hopefully see the emergence of independent product work. That emergence isn’t a given, by the way—some teams stay in ad-hoc chaos mode. And then, as dependencies, friction, drag, etc., increase, we see an increase in the % of large, complex projects. Some of this is inherent—bigger companies have more moving parts—and some of these changes are self-inflicted. You even see an uptick in 0-1 work at a certain point because siloed efforts are the only way to innovate.

        The first 🔥in the diagram is an interesting place:

        1. Things are getting harder. Before, you could throw people at the occasional large, complex project and treat it as a one-off. That is no longer the case.
        2. Generally, as a company, you want things to be easier again! You don’t want to overreact and deal with the 🔥by institutionalizing a new approach to work. At the same time, teams are struggling and need support. There is a push-pull between accepting and dealing with the new reality and trying desperately to turn back the clock somehow.
        3. Pull things together, and you put out the fire. Let things slide, and you drift into 🔥🔥 and beyond. But this is much easier said than done because the drift can be hard to detect, and there are many ways to persuade yourself that it isn’t happening.

        The 🔥is a messy potential inflection point.

        By the time you get to the 🔥🔥🔥s, things are dire. These companies either go under or are forced (in their mind) to implement heavy-duty processes that institutionalize the mess while banking on some kind of transformation.

        It is very difficult to wind back the clock to the goal state:

        Why is any of this interesting or important?

        1. In all but the most trivial and small organizations, you will balance multiple “shapes” of work.
        2. You will repeatedly find yourself in situations where you must choose between formalizing some new reality or being patient and allowing some pain/friction/confusion until the problem hopefully disappears. Put another way, while you will always be juggling multiple shapes of work, you can choose whether to formally acknowledge the different motions or decide instead to let things get messy.
        3. There is a critical window during which you have a decent shot at preventing a slide, but navigating this window is a skill.
        4. If you miss this window, you will have a heftier transformation/shift on your hands.

        Here’s another interesting thing to consider. In some companies, you see a dogged insistence that teams are independent. Everyone is incentivized to work independently, and no one wants to touch the large, complex projects. So you see something like this:

        Eventually, the organization’s lack of alignment catches up with it, and it hits a wall. At that point, it either keeps the same motion (but is better aligned), or perhaps the org chart is off, forcing it into large, complex projects.

        Some questions to consider:

        1. When does the independence of teams become a barrier rather than a benefit?
        2. How do you approach supporting teams through a challenging transition where you must 1) convey that you’re actively working to address the problem and don’t endorse the status quo and 2) realistically acknowledge the current situation to support them?
        3. How can a company know when it’s better to let a small amount of friction or pain remain unaddressed rather than implement new processes to resolve it?
        4. In your career, what signs have helped you distinguish between normal growing pains and more systemic issues that, if left unaddressed, could lead to entrenched problems?
        5. Why might a company choose not to formalize its approach to a significant portion of its work, even if doing so could provide structure and clarity?

        I hope you found this interesting!

        A worthwhile exercise in any organization is to step back and identify 3-5 distinct “work shapes” that truly reflect how work gets done in your environment. A work shape is essentially a set of variables that shape how teams approach their projects, manage risks, secure funding, and allocate resources. Taking the time to define these shapes gives you a more honest view of your organization’s dynamics—and a clearer path forward.

        ian mack
        Participant
          @ian-mack
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          Thanks Andrew. I admit that some of your shorthand heuristic explanations are beyond me, but I will look up the terms on the Internet.

          I too found HOW BIG THINGS GET DONE a great book and read. I incorporated its lessons into a paper I wrote for CGAI in Canada. And thanks for the tip on the book about uncertainty, it is now on my list.

          Andrew Pyke
          Participant
            @mr-andrew-pyke
            Post count: 44
            Andrew Pyke
            Participant
              @mr-andrew-pyke
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              As discussed today, I am in the midst of this excellent book, that I hope to write a review of, in terms of what we can apply to CPM.  Not getting into Climate controversies in particular (its really just an example of a complex problem that Dr Curry’s thinking might be applied to), she explores the interaction of science, politics and risk governance, in uncertainty.  My thinking is that if you expand “science” to include engineering, finance, economics and other disciplines that aspire to facts and truth, but have to grapple with uncertainty, her analysis has a lot to teach us in CPM.

              “Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response” by Dr Judith Curry.

              Andrew Pyke
              Participant
                @mr-andrew-pyke
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                Colleagues, a copy of my webinar slides, as discussed.  This was delivered to a Government and University of NSW sponsored symposium, “Project Government and Control Symposium” (PGCS).  I put an ICCPM SIG ad in at the end. At slides 8 and 9 is the Jevons Paradox bit.

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                Tony Graham
                Participant
                  @tony-graham
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                  Davin

                  Thanks for paper

                  Regret I can’t make the next meeting as I have a OCEA Board meeting in London on 02 Oct and will then be travelling back via train that night so won’t have a good connection

                  Davin Shellshear
                  SIG Chair
                    @davin-shellshear
                    Post count: 168
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                    Hi Group B

                    Thought you might find the attached paper interesting

                    Cheers

                    Davin Shellshear

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                    Davin Shellshear
                    SIG Chair
                      @davin-shellshear
                      Post count: 168
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                      Hi Simon,

                      I wonder if your frustrations reflect the first topic we addressed in Group B, namely

                      How can we “wake up” project leaders and stakeholders who are reluctant to accept or apply complexity methods and models such as the Kaye Remington model (used in adapted form by ICCPM)

                      I would certainly be interested in working with you on this, although I have no organisation to offer for test.

                      Cheers

                      Davin

                      Simon Springate
                      Participant
                        @springates
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                        Following our session last Thursday and Colin’s response, my thought wheels have slowly turned.

                        Recently, I have been delivering bids and related presentations to potential clients covering the organisations and tools needed to control $B+ Infrastructure projects.  My approach is centred around digital-based Project delivery, integrated data that minimises the impact of discipline silos and enables analytics (avoiding the AI word).

                        I am frustrated that these clients then select a simple approach of a schedule, cost control and a digital dashboard because it looks the same as my offering and ‘appears’ cheaper.  I have proposed to my organisation that we design and free issue to potential clients a cheat sheet of questions you should ask your suppliers, a way of teaching how to get to the real cost, risk share, resource load, etc., that the approach is likely to bring.  This goes against telling clients how good we are and accepting they don’t know what ‘good is’.

                        So, following Collin’s notes about advocacy and the limits of round table discussions I thought to take this internally. We have a Program Magt CoP globally and sub-set in Australia who would appreciate a discussion around this topic as an educational opportunity.

                        Perhaps as a group, we could design a package that each of us could run internally and even share the feedback with the SIG for consolidation. I have no idea how we make this work beyond a set of intro slides and facilitator discussion prompts.

                        Simon

                        Sebastian Winter
                        SIG Community Manager
                          @stephen-suminguit
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                          We are thrilled to announce ICCPM Managing Risk in Complexity Special Interest Group (MRC SIG) is collaborating with the Institute of Risk Management Risk & Complexity SIG and Dr David Hillson (The Risk Doctor) to deliver a presentation focusing on the concept of ‘Antifragility’, and distinguishing it from resilience.

                          Dr Hillson will be presenting on the practical application of Nassim Taleb’s concept as it applies to organisations, projects, and programmes.

                          The event is free to register for anyone to attend, and we hope to see some Members of the Managing Risk in Complexity Special Interest Group join us online. This will be an evening slot for AUS time zones, and a morning for those in the UK.

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                          Sebastian Winter
                          SIG Community Manager
                            @stephen-suminguit
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                            Hello MRC SIG.

                            Ahead of launching the Analytics in Complex Projects Special Interest Group (ACP SIG) next month, we are seeking insights regarding our Special Interest Groups and access to the meetings.

                            We want to better understand your needs, so if you are able to, please spare 5 minutes to complete this 6 question survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/M9Y9JP3 

                            If you have any questions, or want to make a comment/feedback that isn’t included on the survey, please send an email to marcomms@iccpm.com

                            Sebastian Winter
                            SIG Community Manager
                              @stephen-suminguit
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                              Hello MRC SIG!

                              We are resuming meetings on Thursday 6 June at 8:00AM AEDT, and invite you to join.

                              If you have not yet received an email from ICCPM with the Zoom details, please reach out to marcomms@iccpm.com

                              Looking forward to seeing you online.

                              Sebastian Winter
                              SIG Community Manager
                                @stephen-suminguit
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                                Hello MRC SIG!

                                We would like to invite MRC SIG Members to join us at the 2024-25 International Roundtable Series. The first workshop will be in Canberra on the 23 May followed by an exciting program of Australian, international and online workshops.

                                The theme for this series is ‘Rethinking Boundaries in Complex Projects: Navigating the intersections and interplay of functions and stakeholders across the project lifecycle‘, and we will be exploring the evolving nature of project disciplines, the implications for complex project leadership, and whether it is necessary to extend the scope of projects beyond traditional completion points and domain functions.

                                The full schedule is available now:

                                • Canberra – 23 MAY 2024 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM AEDT
                                • Online – 30 MAY 2024 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM AEST
                                  • 29 MAY 2024 3:30 PM California, USA (PDT)
                                  • 29 MAY 2024 4:30 PM Mexico City, MX (CST)
                                  • 29 MAY 2024 6:30 PM Ottawa, CA (EDT)
                                • Ottawa, CA – 17 June, 2024, 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM (EDT)
                                • London, UK – 20 June 2024, 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM (BST)
                                • Ho Chi Minh City, VN – 24 June 2024, 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM (ICT)
                                • Adelaide – 20 SEPT 2024 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM (ACST) – TBC
                                • Online – 15 OCT 2024 2:00 PM (AEDT)
                                  • 4:00 PM Auckland, NZ (NZDT)
                                  • 8:30 AM New Delhi, IN (IST)
                                  • 10:00 AM Hanoi, VN (ICT)
                                  • 11:00 AM Hong Kong, HK (HKT), Singapore, SG (SGT)
                                  • 12:00 PM Tokyo, JP (JST), Seoul, KR (KST)
                                • Sydney – 21 NOV 2024 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM AEDT
                                • Brisbane – 27 MAR 2025 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM
                                • Online – 30 APR 2025 6:30 PM (AEST)
                                  • 9:30 AM London, UK (BST)
                                  • 10:30 AM Paris, FR. Berlin, DE. Rome, IT. Stockholm, SE (CEST)
                                  • 10:30AM Johannesburg, ZA (SAST)
                                • Melbourne – 21 MAY 2025 8:30 AM – 4:00 PM AEST – TBC

                                Registrations for the 2024-25 International Roundtable Series are open for many of our workshop locations across the Series. Registration is essential.

                                More information available:
                                https://iccpm.com/roundtable-2024-25/

                                 

                                ian mack
                                Participant
                                  @ian-mack
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                                  Team – If (a big if) we take up ICCPM’s request to consider complexity mapping, and based on a small amount of my Internet reading (there is a significant amount of interesting material there), it resulted in some initial thoughts by me, as one who has never used the technique. And while not that surprising perhaps, I found them of potentially practical value. (See the attachment) They might even jog thoughts by others, especially those who have been trained in the use of the technique.

                                  PS – Stephen, thanks for the references steer, some gems within those references.

                                  For consideration – Ian

                                   

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