Forums Managing Risk in Complexity SIG
(MRC SIG)
Complexity papers and resources

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  • Sebastian Winter
    SIG Community Manager
      @stephen-suminguit
      Post count: 38
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      [quote quote=11790]Thanks I am still stuck This screenshot shows where the link takes me but I don’t see “Complex Project Management Tools”[/quote]

      Hi @stephen-grey

      Based on your screenshot, please scroll a bit further down in the Members Area page to find the “Complex Project Management Tools” section. I have included a screenshot for reference.

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      Stephen Grey
      Participant
        @stephen-grey
        Post count: 101
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        I think I have solved it

         

        The website doesn’t like my VPN

        It doesn’t say so but seems to limit what is visible, even though I am logged in

         

        Trying again

        Stephen Grey
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          @stephen-grey
          Post count: 101
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          Thanks

           

          I am still stuck

           

          This screenshot shows where the link takes me but I don’t see “Complex Project Management Tools”

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          Sebastian Winter
          SIG Community Manager
            @stephen-suminguit
            Post count: 38
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            Hi @Stephen-Grey,

            Thanks for asking.

            For convenience, we’ve curated some tools for our Members in the Members Area under the section “Complex Project Management Tools”: https://iccpm.com/membership/members-area/

            Stephen Grey
            Participant
              @stephen-grey
              Post count: 101
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              @Stephen-Suminguit

              I can’t see anything about that tool in the https://iccpm.com/resources/useful-tools/ page

              Is that where it should be?

              Steve Grey

              Sebastian Winter
              SIG Community Manager
                @stephen-suminguit
                Post count: 38
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                We are pleased to share that the “Dimensions of Project Complexity” has been added to the list of tools in the Members Area: https://iccpm.com/membership/members-area/

                Stephen Grey
                Participant
                  @stephen-grey
                  Post count: 101
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                  I mentioned the idea of metaphorical teddy bears being used to overcome anxiety about the use of novel techniques

                  This is a link to the ABC broadcast that described it

                  https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/this-working-life/harnessing-ambiguity/8010228

                  Stephen Grey
                  Participant
                    @stephen-grey
                    Post count: 101
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                    In the face of anxiety among clients about schedule risk modelling failing to forecast the long right hand tail they expect to see on schedule probability distributions, based on the experience of having some projects blow out by a large amount, I looked into various mechanisms that might help us understand how a project can descend into chaos. The paper linked from this page demonstrates that, while there might be several forces at work, a simple interaction between schedule slippage and the fire fighting behaviour it often stimulates can explain the phenomenon.

                    https://broadleaf.com.au/extreme-project-schedule-over-run/

                    This is not a complete encapsulation of the loss of control that projects can face. That is a multifaceted phenomenon. However, it shows how the interaction between uncertainty and human behaviour, a tendency towards fire fighting rather than pulling back to regroup and reset, can explain a high probability of schedule over run.

                    Stephen Grey
                    Participant
                      @stephen-grey
                      Post count: 101
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                      This is a link to a recording of a talk I gave to the Monash University Master of Project Management course

                      The production quality is not brilliant but I think that the content is useful despite the background noise. One of the key points is that I have found it is more straightforward to define complexity in terms of what it is not that to try to define it directly, as explained in the talk.

                      https://www.dropbox.com/s/qr9aa9u9wwjpm60/Monash%20Uni%20Masters%20course%20lecture%202021.mp4?dl=0

                      The slides are in the attached file but, without the animation and narration that you can see in the video, a lot of important points are lost

                       

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                      Stephen Grey
                      Participant
                        @stephen-grey
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                        This INSEAD paper outlines how major infrastructure projects diverge from their initial stated targets due to the involvement of people and organisations that bring human behaviour to bear. I believe that the same forces are at work wherever the participants join in progressively, including organisational change and IT projects where stakeholder involvement grows as work progresses. Large ‘concrete’ projects are subject to the effect of interactions with complex human systems that surround them.

                        ABSTRACT

                        This study links evolution in organizational structure to ambiguity in the definition of performance in the context of organizations formed to develop long-lived infrastructure: so-called ‘mega-projects’. Based on a longitudinal, inductive analysis of three megaprojects in London, we argue that a mega-project is a meta-organization with two symbiotically-related constituent structures. The core, led by a coalition, is a mutable collective that shares control over the goal of the project and corresponding high-level design choices. The periphery is a supply chain selected to design and build the
                        infrastructure, but lacks the authority to change the high-level choices. As the megaproject structure evolves over time, we show that the founders and new comers renegotiate the high-level choices and slippages in performance targets ensue. The conflation of committals to different baselines, differing preferences for efficiency and effectiveness, and rivalry in high-level choices gives rise to competing performance narratives which cannot be reconciled. Thus, we argue, the disappointing and controversial (under) performance of mega-projects may be a result of how their organizational structure develops, rather than due to any agency or competence related failure per se.

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                        Stephen Grey
                        Participant
                          @stephen-grey
                          Post count: 101

                          As discussed in the meeting this morning, I am posting a few papers and other materials that might stimulate ideas for the working group

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